Friday, 1 May 2020

COVID19 : Analysis and Prediction

Covid I

This is the blog for  awareness which will provide regular status updates to keep you in line with the virus spread across country , also when the pandemic will slow down and how will the economic implications come because of the disease.

I collected India data with various metrics and see how the growth affected the corona at State level and what numbers matters and eventually how soon we should look for a solution and what are the areas to invest.


India is a country which got affected in later stages of pandemic when most of the world was already gripped in , we had time but with a large population to take care of , certain things we have managed well , but certain we have lost the battle , but the war is still on and our focus should be on less casualties.

Map showing Total Cases in States , with Blue being less , yellow secondary and red being the most affected.

Covid Cases Rise in India Details : Date 21st May 2020 

Maharastra still the most dangerous state for Corona and it might stay this way by the end of epidemic , it will be New York of India.

Gujrat, Tamil Nadu and Delhi are increasing in numbers and worrying sign is the death rate of the Gujrat which is 6% , than the country average of 3-4%.

Recovery Rate from 10th May : Recovery rate go by the formula Number of patients recovered on that day to the total number of cases exists , A recovery rate of 100% means the state is corona free and we should look for a positive increment in recovery rate.

Takeaways :

States like Kerala was doing really great with 90% of its patient already recovered and heading for a corona free states , also it had made a 15% jump in last 5 days to make it fastest recovering state.

But now with recent resurgence of cases called as second localised wave Kerala is having a dip of 14% and recovered patient rate is at 82%

Haryana has made a jump of nearly 20+% in recovery rate , but we might have to consider the tests taken as well here , maybe an analysis with the tests taken will give more insights here.

Punjab is up in recovery by 50% and it seems released the patients together which is good sign for the state.

Bihar is down from 52% to 35% which means more influx of new cases and less recovery in past 10 days.

Death Rate from 1st May : Death rate means ratio of total number of patients died to that day to the total number of cases exists , a death rate of 0% means that the corona couldn't kill anyone and more death rate means the state is having trouble.

Takeaways :

Gujrat ,Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra  again high on death rate , above than the nation's average. , but if you see total cases , Gujrat is the one in danger of conceding most deaths in Country.

Corona Top 5 States trend :

Maharashtra is clearly a notch above and remains as most infected and increasing states for India.
with Only 3 states are now corona free , reduced from 5, it clearly means this is not going to go so soon.

To see further analysis on tests , please check here :


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